Benchmark Diesel Price Rises for 11th Consecutive Week, by Smallest Margin in Recent Period
The benchmark diesel price, which serves as the reference for most fuel surcharges in trucking contracts, has increased for the 11th straight week. This latest uptick marks the smallest weekly gain seen in several weeks.
Professional drivers rely on this benchmark to calculate fuel costs in their operations. Fuel surcharges, tied directly to these prices, affect take-home pay and overall trip economics for independent operators and company drivers alike. A sustained upward trend like this one impacts budgeting for long-haul runs, especially on routes with high fuel consumption.
The benchmark tracks national average diesel prices reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It reflects wholesale and retail trends at truck stops across major regions. Drivers in the Midwest, South, and West Coast often see local prices move in tandem with this index.
This 11-week streak of increases follows a period of relative stability earlier in the year. Previously, diesel prices had bottomed out near historic lows, providing relief at the pump. For context, oil prices—the key driver of diesel costs—had declined sharply to levels around $44.52 per barrel in late 2015, with gasoline dipping to $2.22 per gallon nationally.
Recent economic indicators show mixed signals that influence fuel markets. Crude oil rose $1.44 week-over-week to $33.69 per barrel in a January 2016 snapshot, reflecting volatility in global supply. Gasoline prices held steady near $2.22, remaining below $2.00 in many states, which supports consumer spending but pressures refiners’ margins.
- Oil prices down $1.91 week-over-week to $44.52 in November 2015 data.
- Gasoline down $0.01 to $2.22, with four-week usage up 2.5% year-over-year.
- Later data shows oil rebounding to $33.69, indicating ongoing fluctuations.
Commodity prices, as measured by the Journal of Commerce ECRI index, fell 1.94 to 83.36 week-over-week in November 2015, down 29.97% year-over-year. Industrial metals ETFs dropped 1.43% that week. These trends point to broader pressure on energy-related commodities, though year-over-year comparisons for some industrial commodities have shown slight improvement.
Transportation volumes provide additional context for drivers. Railroad carloads were down 8.5% year-over-year, excluding coal at -4.6%, with intermodal units down 3.4% and total loads down 6.0%. Lower rail traffic can signal reduced freight demand, which influences load availability and rates for truckers competing in the same markets.
A strong U.S. dollar, up 1.22 to 118.56 in one report and later adjusting to 125.58 broad index, has appreciated significantly against the euro—about 20% in late 2015. This strength imports deflation on commodities priced in dollars but hurts U.S. exports, potentially softening freight volumes on export-heavy lanes.
Consumer spending metrics offer insight into demand for goods hauled by trucks. Johnson Redbook index at +1.9% year-over-year, Goldman Sachs at -0.9% week-over-week but +2.7% year-over-year, and Gallup daily spending at $89 (up $1 year-over-year). These figures suggest steady retail activity, supporting reefer and dry van loads even amid fuel cost pressures.
Employment data remains within normal expansion ranges. Initial jobless claims at 278,000 (down 15,000), with the four-week average at 283,000 (down 2,000). The American Staffing Association Index rose 1 point to 102 in one week (down 3.06% year-over-year) and to 94 in another (down 2.50% year-over-year), indicating some softening but no recessionary signals.
Tax withholding data shows positive trends: $44.9 billion for early November 2015 (up 5.2% year-over-year) and $205.0 billion for late January 2016 (up 5.1% year-over-year). This reflects wage growth, bolstering consumer-driven freight.
For drivers managing fuel surcharges, the formula typically uses a baseline price (often $1.20-$1.50 per gallon from contract dates) and applies a percentage adjustment based on the current benchmark. With 11 weeks of gains, surcharges have climbed, reducing net revenue per mile unless base rates adjust accordingly.
Regional variations matter for route planning. Prices at truck stops lag the benchmark slightly due to inventory cycles, so drivers filling up in low-price areas like the Gulf Coast may see smaller impacts than those in California, where state taxes and regulations keep diesel higher.
Bank lending rates, with TED spread at 0.304 (up 0.028) and LIBOR at 0.1948 (up 0.0018), indicate slightly tighter credit conditions, which could affect fleet financing and equipment purchases.
Money supply growth—M2 up 5.5% year-over-year—supports economic activity, keeping freight lanes active despite commodity headwinds.
Independent operators should track the EIA’s weekly diesel report, released every Monday, for the most current benchmark. Fuel cards with rewards or volume discounts can offset some costs during uptrends. Long-term, hedging through futures or locking in supplier contracts provides stability.
This sustained but moderating rise underscores the need for precise fuel management. Drivers optimizing MPG through speed control, idle reduction, and route efficiency maintain profitability amid changing prices.