Truckload Demand Slides 15%, Yet Spot Rates Keep Surging

Truckload Volumes Drop 15% — But Spot Rates Stay Hot

Truckload freight volumes fell nearly 15% on Sept. 9 as activity pulled back from a pre-Labor Day surge. The decline followed a weekend and holiday period with limited shipping activity, which pushed the seven-day rolling average lower in FreightWaves’ SONAR Truckload Volume Index.

For drivers and carriers, however, the more important signal was what did not happen: spot rates did not fall with volume. The National Truckload Index, FreightWaves’ benchmark for truckload spot rates, stood at $3.44 per mile, up about 0.5% on the day and 47% higher than the same period a year earlier.

The daily version of the index reached $3.57 per mile on Sept. 6 before easing to approximately $3.40 on Sept. 8. Even after that pullback, the rate remained well above the $2.29 per mile recorded a year earlier.

Rejections remain elevated

Tender rejections also declined slightly, but not enough to indicate a major improvement in available capacity. The national Tender Rejection Index fell about 3.2% to just above 14%.

A tender rejection occurs when a carrier declines a load originally offered under a contract agreement. Elevated rejection rates generally mean shippers are having more difficulty securing contracted capacity, increasing the likelihood that freight moves to the spot market.

Equipment-specific data showed a sharper divide between truckload segments. Van rejection rates were reported at 12.35%, while flatbed rejections were just under 19%. Reefer rejections remained above 20%, nearly 10 percentage points higher than van.

That difference points to continued pressure in temperature-controlled freight. Reefer carriers face additional operating requirements, including refrigeration equipment, fuel consumption and appointment constraints. For drivers, the figures indicate that reefer freight remains more difficult for shippers to cover even as overall truckload volumes soften.

Fuel costs add pressure

Diesel prices were another factor affecting the market. The U.S. Department of Energy’s national average stood at $5.60 per gallon, an increase of nearly 10% from the prior week.

Higher fuel costs raise the operating expense of every mile, but the impact can be especially significant for independent contractors and smaller fleets with limited purchasing power. Fuel is only one part of the equation. Maintenance costs, insurance, equipment payments and driver costs also influence the rates carriers need to accept freight profitably.

Van contract linehaul rates held at $2.72 per mile, while the reefer spot rate reached $3.84 per mile on an all-in basis. The gap between contract and spot pricing, combined with elevated rejection rates, continues to give carriers more alternatives when evaluating loads.

Intermodal sees increased interest

Intermodal contract rates increased 3.5% to $1.80 per mile, the largest single-day move in the data cited in the SONAR update. The increase reflects continued efforts by shippers to shift some freight from over-the-road transportation to rail in search of cost relief.

Intermodal is not a direct substitute for every truckload move. Transit times, terminal locations, drayage requirements and service consistency all affect whether a shipment can move by rail. Still, rising truckload costs and tighter capacity are encouraging more shippers to examine intermodal options on suitable long-haul lanes.

Other market indicators also showed persistent cost pressure. The Logistics Managers’ Index reported inventory levels at 52.8, above the 50-point threshold that indicates expansion, although the measure was about 4% lower than a year earlier. Transportation utilization was 70.6, and the transportation prices subindex reached 90, approximately 4% higher than the previous month.

What the numbers mean for drivers

The September volume decline should not be read in isolation. Post-holiday shipping slowdowns can temporarily reduce rolling volume measurements, and the available data showed that rates and tender rejections remained much stronger than volume trends.

For professional drivers, the market was defined by uneven conditions rather than a broad shift in one direction. Van freight was under less capacity pressure than reefer and flatbed, while fuel costs were rising across equipment types. Load availability and rates could therefore vary substantially by region, equipment and lane.

FreightWaves also identified tariff negotiations involving Canada, the European Union and Mexico, as well as potential disruptions involving Russian refinery capacity, as issues to monitor because of their possible effect on trade and diesel availability. The data did not establish a direct impact from those factors on the September volume decline.

The immediate takeaway was straightforward: truckload volumes fell sharply after Labor Day, but the capacity environment remained tight enough to keep rejection rates and spot pricing elevated. Until capacity improves materially or demand weakens for a sustained period, carriers may continue to see a market that is softer in volume but still firm in pricing.