Diesel Prices Could Get Worse: What Truckers Need to Know
Diesel prices have climbed sharply across multiple markets, increasing operating costs for truck fleets, farmers, food distributors and consumers. Analysts and industry groups warn that tight refinery capacity, disrupted supplies and strong global demand could keep fuel prices elevated well into the next refinery maintenance cycle.
Refinery maintenance could extend supply pressure
U.S. refineries have reportedly delayed significant maintenance work until 2027. That schedule could lead to one of the industry’s most extensive maintenance periods next year, potentially limiting production and keeping diesel prices elevated for an extended period.
Diesel demand remains stronger globally than gasoline demand, according to energy analyst Tom Kloza. Warmer weather and a reduction in global conflict could provide some relief, but market conditions remain vulnerable to refinery outages and supply disruptions.
A reduction in available refining capacity has already pushed diesel prices to record levels in some markets. Analysts have warned that a U.S. ban on diesel exports could create a major shock to global fuel supplies while also producing unintended consequences in domestic markets.
Export restrictions could raise domestic prices
The Northeast and West Coast rely heavily on imported diesel. If U.S. exports were reduced further, those regions could face higher prices as global supplies tightened.
Gulf Coast refineries could also face storage constraints if they were unable to export diesel. With storage capacity filling, refiners could be forced to reduce production, potentially worsening the domestic supply imbalance.
President Donald Trump has said he is seriously considering a diesel export ban, despite warnings from oil industry representatives and energy analysts that such a move could increase fuel costs in the United States and abroad.
Rapidan Energy President Bob McNally estimated that Americans are spending approximately $700 million more each day on gasoline and diesel than they were a year ago. The White House has said a temporary exemption from federal and state fuel taxes could save truckers more than $100 per fill-up.
Higher costs affect trucking and agriculture
Fuel is one of the largest operating expenses for trucking companies. Benchmarking by the American Trucking Research Institute places fuel at approximately 21% of total cost per mile.
A tractor-trailer carrying 250 gallons of diesel would cost about $1,575 to fill at a price of $6.30 per gallon. A reduction of approximately 60 cents per gallon through tax relief would lower the cost of that fill-up by roughly $150.
Farmers are also exposed to diesel price increases. Diesel represents approximately 5% to 10% of input costs across crops, according to the supplied analysis. Estimates cited in the material indicate that conflict involving Iran, damaged refineries in Russia and regional diesel disruptions could add as much as $12,500 in fuel costs for every 1,000 acres harvested.
Persistent increases in diesel prices could place additional pressure on food prices because farmers purchase fuel disproportionately during planting and harvest periods. The Independent Grocers Alliance estimates that fuel accounts for approximately 15% to 30% of total food costs, with perishable products such as meat and produce particularly exposed because they require frequent transportation.
Global markets show similar increases
Diesel prices have also risen substantially outside the United States. In the United Kingdom, diesel powers approximately 30% of passenger vehicles and 38% of heavy goods vehicles. Higher operating costs for those vehicles could increase the cost of transporting goods.
European Union gasoline prices have risen by approximately 29% since the beginning of the year, while diesel prices have increased by about 40%, according to figures cited in the supplied material. Average diesel prices in the United Kingdom recently exceeded £2 per liter for the first time.
Economists estimate that a temporary 15% increase in the diesel spread could raise consumer price index inflation by approximately 0.6 percentage points in Canada and 0.8 percentage points in the United States.
U.S. diesel inventories are reportedly at their lowest seasonal level since records began in 1982. If the supply shortfall persists, elevated diesel prices could continue affecting freight rates, agricultural costs, food distribution and broader consumer inflation.
