Morgan Stanley sees supply-side “spark” for trucking in 2026
Morgan Stanley is calling for a trucking recovery in 2026 that’s driven less by a sudden jump in freight demand and more by the supply side of the market getting tighter.
In its 2026 outlook, the bank said new regulatory enforcement around driver-related rules is expected to shrink available capacity enough to help stabilize and lift rates. Morgan Stanley estimates the impact could remove more than 5% of industry capacity, creating what it described as a “rising floor” for pricing.
“We believe supply tightening as a result of new driver regulations is real and sustainable and will put a rising floor on rates in 2026,” Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley’s transportation equities analyst, told investors.
On the back of that view, Morgan Stanley upgraded its freight transportation industry outlook to Attractive for 2026. Shanker and his team said the risk-reward setup for the sector looks better than it has since 2020, while acknowledging conditions aren’t completely clear yet.
The firm’s call comes after what it described as an “unprecedented downcycle” in 2025. In that environment, fleets have been dealing with weak pricing and pressure on margins. Morgan Stanley pointed to tightening truckload capacity and freight spillback as key factors that could improve the setup heading into 2026.
For drivers and small carriers, the takeaway is that Morgan Stanley’s recovery thesis leans heavily on enforcement-driven capacity leaving the market—rather than assuming freight volumes suddenly surge. If capacity does shrink as projected, the bank expects rates to find firmer support in 2026.
One related implication flagged in the broader outlook: shrinking trucking capacity could lead to double-digit freight price increases in 2026, which would raise transportation’s share of total supply chain costs.