2026 forecast: Government policies, overcapacity among headwinds
Looking ahead to 2026, multiple economic forecasts point to a year where freight demand improves, but operating conditions stay complicated. Analysts expect inflation to remain a problem, government policy to keep supply chains unsettled, and pockets of overcapacity to continue weighing on pricing power.
One major theme is inflation that refuses to fully cool. Forecasts cited for 2026 call for a “confluence of factors” beyond tariffs, with core inflation expected to stay above 3% year over year for most of the year. Other projections say inflation will peak around 3.5% during 2026 before easing to about 3% in 2027. In the U.S., growth is expected to keep inflation above 2% by the end of 2026.
For trucking, that matters because inflation affects everything from equipment and parts to insurance, maintenance, and wage pressure. Even if some price categories cool, stubborn core inflation can keep everyday cost levels elevated for carriers and owner-operators.
ACT Research also flagged the business environment itself as a core challenge, noting that uncertainty and headwinds heavily impact the 2026 freight forecast. In the outlook provided, demand in 2026 is expected to increase 1.5% year over year while capacity rises 1%. That points to modest tightening, but not a dramatic shift—especially if capacity doesn’t exit as quickly as hoped in certain segments.
Policy remains a recurring source of disruption in the forecasts. Alongside tariffs, the information provided cites growth being affected by policies including immigration-related limits and government shutdown dynamics. Separately, analysts warned that these types of policy choices can fragment the global supply chain, raise costs, and potentially lead to overcapacity in some segments while bottlenecks persist in others.
Outside the U.S., growth expectations are mixed. Germany is expected to strengthen to roughly 1.5% growth, driven by fiscal stimulus and defense spending, while France is expected to be held back by political uncertainty and strained budgets. The U.K. is expected to downshift as domestic headwinds—including a cooling labor market—follow trade shocks.
Across Asia, forecasts also show crosscurrents. International overcapacity is being discussed as a continuing issue, with slower recovery in international traffic putting pressure on yields and deflationary pressure driving yields lower in China. At the same time, Asia Pacific is still expected to contribute the largest share of global traffic growth, with projected load factors reaching 84.4% in 2026.
China’s growth outlook varies by source in the information provided. The IMF cited 4.5% growth in 2026, while the World Bank projected 4.4% in 2026, both while noting persistent headwinds. Structural issues mentioned include a real estate-related drag on the “wealth effect,” and industrial pressure tied to competition from Chinese overcapacity and weaker domestic investment.
For drivers, the labor picture is part of the freight equation. Forecasts included here say labor markets that cooled markedly in 2025 should stabilize by the end of 2026, helping keep the unemployment rate below 4.5%. A steadier labor market can support consumer spending, which feeds freight, but it can also keep competition for qualified drivers in play where fleets are hiring.
Consumer conditions are expected to improve in some regions. Analysts anticipate consumers will benefit from lower inflation and the lagged impact of rate cuts in 2026, along with additional government support measures such as subsidies in Japan and Korea and tax cuts in India. Globally, MEI expects real GDP growth to ease slightly to 3.1% in 2026 from an estimated 3.2% in 2025, while still expecting Asia Pacific growth to hold steady.
Put together, the 2026 picture being described is not a clean “all-clear” for trucking. The forecasts point to modest freight demand growth, but also lingering inflation, policy-driven uncertainty, and overcapacity pressures that can keep rates and margins under stress even when volumes improve.