Why Trucking Capacity Still Isn’t Returning to the 2026 Freight Market

Is Trucking Capacity Coming Back? Why New Capacity Isn’t Entering the 2026 Freight Market

New trucking capacity is not entering the U.S. freight market, even after roughly a year of elevated tender rejections, according to FreightWaves SONAR data published Oct. 7, 2026.

The data points to a market tightening because trucks and drivers are leaving or remaining unavailable, rather than because freight demand is surging. Tractors in new for-hire fleets fell to 19,520 in August, down about 14% from the first-half average. Total for-hire tractors declined by approximately 51,000 during the month.

At the same time, the SONAR Truckload Rejection Index remained near 14%. That is roughly three times the range seen from 2023 through 2025. Over the three years ending in October 2026, truckload volume increased only 9%, while tender rejections rose 268%. Rejections were more than 350% above their earlier level at the peak in early summer.

For drivers and carriers, the numbers describe a supply-side market. Contract carriers are turning down a much larger share of tenders even though the overall amount of truckload freight has changed relatively little.

The pattern differs from the previous cycle

During the 2020-22 freight cycle, higher rejection rates eventually brought more equipment into the for-hire market. When tender rejections rose in mid-2020, tractors in new for-hire fleets began increasing within a few quarters. Those fleets reached about 47,000 tractors at their peak in mid-2022.

The current cycle has followed a different path. New-fleet tractor counts declined from the 2022 peak, reached a low in early 2025, and then briefly improved during the spring. Since then, the counts have flattened and moved lower even as tender rejections rose sharply beginning in late 2025.

That means higher demand for trucks has not produced the usual response from new entrants. Instead, available capacity has continued to shrink. The result is a market in which carriers are rejecting more loads without a comparable increase in freight volume.

Authority counts do not equal trucks

One reason the market can appear to be adding capacity is the increase in operating authorities. Net authority additions exceeded 2,000 per week in late August and late September, the highest level in five years.

However, an operating authority is permission to haul regulated freight for hire. It does not show how many trucks a company operates, whether those trucks are moving freight or whether the carrier has active insurance and qualified drivers.

The 2026 increase in authority counts was also affected by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Motus registration system. The system rollout paused some deactivations and helped process a backlog of applications and reinstatements. As a result, net revocations turned negative, meaning reinstatements outnumbered revocations. Estimated new authority grants were about 17% below the first-quarter level.

New-carrier activity also appears weaker when measured by insurance filings. Only about two out of three new interstate registrants obtained liability insurance, compared with more than nine out of 10 in 2019. A carrier that does not secure or maintain insurance cannot operate under its authority.

Insurance and driver availability add pressure

Higher operating costs are making it more difficult for small carriers and new entrants to add equipment. Liability and cargo insurance premiums increased 3.9% in 2025, reaching approximately 10.6 cents per mile, according to the American Transportation Research Institute. Costs continued to rise in early 2026 even as crash rates declined.

Driver availability is another constraint. As of Jan. 2, 2026, 202,345 commercial driver’s license and permit holders were listed in prohibited status in the FMCSA Drug and Alcohol Clearinghouse. A rule affecting non-domiciled CDLs that took effect March 16 could affect as many as 194,000 drivers over time.

English-language-proficiency enforcement has also been placing about 2,700 drivers out of service each month, according to SONAR data. The full effect of those changes on available capacity may not be clear until after the holiday period and beyond.

Large carriers are reporting similar challenges. Schneider described the market as driver-constrained in its second-quarter 2026 results, while Knight-Swift and Werner said driver availability was limiting fleet levels.

What the tight market means for drivers

Truckload operating margins were barely positive in 2025, limiting the ability of carriers to finance additional trucks, insurance and labor. About 10% of carrier trucks sat without a driver in 2025, according to ATRI. Those parked trucks represent potential capacity, but they cannot return to service until qualified, compliant drivers are available.

Seasonal freight can add to the pressure. Holiday demand, weather and contract rates established months earlier can create a mismatch between what carriers agreed to haul and the market conditions they face later. When contract capacity is unavailable, more freight moves to the spot market, where rates and daily volatility can increase.

SONAR expects the truckload market to remain tight through early 2027, with tender rejections above the 4% to 6% range recorded from 2023 through 2025. The earliest signs of a meaningful shift would be rising tractor counts and new-fleet tractors for at least two consecutive months, falling rejections while volume remains steady, and an increase in first-time insurance filings rather than merely higher authority counts.