Warehouse cramming is about to begin — Freightonomics
The SONAR Truckload Rejection Index has moved above last year’s peak, a sign that the truckload market is tightening even as freight demand remains uncertain. For drivers, tender rejections are one of the clearer signals that available capacity is getting absorbed and carriers are becoming less willing to take contracted loads at current rates.
At the same time, a Morgan Stanley analysis says the next upturn in trucking could be driven by the supply side, which matches the pattern seen in the last three upcycles. In plain terms, that means a tightening market can show up because capacity exits or becomes constrained, not necessarily because demand is suddenly strong.
Warehousing is part of the picture. The current environment includes warehouse contraction and shifting distribution footprints, with the sector described as increasingly dynamic heading into 2026, as operators enter and exit and uncertainty drives change. When warehouses tighten up, freight can become harder to stage and schedule smoothly, which can ripple into appointment delays, longer dwell times, and more uneven load availability.
Several pressures are converging across logistics budgets. Freight, warehouse, and labor costs are taking a larger share of spend, and finance teams are pushing for better visibility into where money is going and why. On the operational side, routing systems are increasingly using more variables—fuel consumption, traffic patterns, hours-of-service limits, and equipment availability—while warehouse management systems are more tightly synced to shipping schedules to reduce idle inventory and improve transfer timing.
Technology is also reshaping the warehouse end of the supply chain. Analysts project that more than 25% of warehouses will be automated beyond basic conveyors by 2027, and some leading operators report large productivity gains from robot-enabled picking. Those changes can affect how freight flows to and from docks, including load readiness and turn times.
Other developments are adding friction and uncertainty to freight planning. Trade policy and tariffs are cited as factors affecting import volumes, and congestion at ports is hampering ocean shipping while air freight competes for limited space. Separately, an FMCSA audit found New York unlawfully issued CDLs to foreign applicants with expired visas, prompting an order to halt issuance or risk losing funding—an enforcement action that underscores how closely licensing and workforce compliance are being scrutinized.
For drivers and small fleets, the takeaway is that the tightening signal in tender rejections is arriving alongside shifting warehouse capacity and fast-moving operational changes. The market indicators are improving on the capacity side, but the broader backdrop remains mixed, with demand uncertainty and supply chain constraints still shaping day-to-day freight conditions.