Tariffs, enforcement and cargo theft reshape U.S.–Mexico trade in 2025
Exports tied to the heavy-duty vehicle industry dropped nearly 60% in September as manufacturers and shippers reacted ahead of a new U.S. tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
The 25% tariff went into effect Nov. 1. With a large share of Mexico-built heavy-duty trucks moving north, the run-up to that date created a noticeable shift in cross-border freight timing and volume.
About 70% of heavy-duty trucks manufactured in Mexico are shipped to the United States, making U.S. policy changes especially important for plants, suppliers and the carriers that serve those lanes.
For working drivers, the story is less about politics and more about what shows up on the load board: when exports swing sharply, it can tighten or flood capacity in specific border corridors, change appointment availability, and reshuffle which commodities are moving.
Tariffs have been a recurring theme through early 2025, with several policy moves clustered in the first half of February:
- Feb. 3, 2025: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico, with retaliation promised.
- Feb. 4, 2025: The U.S. and China engaged in tariff back-and-forth, while Canadian and Mexican tariffs were delayed.
- Feb. 11, 2025: President Trump adjusted the steel and aluminum tariff and directed Customs to increase enforcement.
Alongside tariff changes, increased enforcement at the border affects how freight moves day to day. More checks can mean longer processing times and closer scrutiny of paperwork, which matters most for time-sensitive loads and for drivers trying to manage hours of service around crossings.
With tariffs, enforcement and cargo security concerns shaping the broader backdrop for U.S.–Mexico trade, the September export drop and the Nov. 1 truck tariff highlight how quickly cross-border freight can respond to policy shifts.