Diesel reverses course, falls 20 cents over 3 weeks
Diesel prices have moved back down after a run-up earlier in the month, falling about 20 cents per gallon over the past three weeks. The latest weekly drop was 9.3 cents per gallon, matching the same-sized decline last seen on December 18, 2023.
That December 2023 date stands out for another reason: it capped a stretch when diesel fell 19.8 cents per gallon over two weeks, underscoring how quickly pump prices can change when market conditions shift.
For drivers, even small weekly moves matter. Fuel is one of the biggest variable costs on the road, and a 20-cent swing can change the weekly math for both owner-operators and fleets—especially for high-mileage regional and over-the-road runs.
Several factors are pressuring diesel lower. While U.S. economic growth increased consumption by 50,000 barrels per day in 2024, overall global consumption has decreased. Diesel is refined from crude oil, and lower crude prices have also pushed down projected diesel costs.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s outlook reflects that softer pricing environment. According to the EIA’s diesel cost projections, retail diesel prices are expected to average about $2.30 per gallon in 2025.
Shorter-term market sentiment has also shifted. A slight rollback in diesel prices is expected next week amid renewed Ukraine-Russia ceasefire hopes that eased global supply concerns.
International policy debates are adding background noise to the diesel conversation, even if they don’t directly set U.S. pump prices. In Europe, leaders continue to argue over deadlines for ending sales of new petrol and diesel vehicles. Manfred Weber, president of the European People’s Party group in the European parliament, said the 2035 cutoff date would be softened next week, according to Germany’s Bild newspaper.
In the UK, the debate has drawn pushback from climate advocates. Doug Parr, Greenpeace UK’s policy director, warned that changing course now would create “chaos after years of preparation for electric cars,” and said proposals floated by the Conservatives would not take effect before 2029.
For trucking, the immediate takeaway is simpler: diesel has turned downward again after recent increases, and the broader outlook is being influenced by crude prices, consumption trends, and geopolitics.
- Latest weekly move: down 9.3 cents per gallon
- Three-week change: down about 20 cents per gallon
- Key drivers: lower crude prices, mixed demand signals, eased supply concerns