Truckload Pricing Expected to Rise Faster Than Intermodal as Freight Recovery Takes Shape

C.H. Robinson expects truckload pricing to continue increasing faster than intermodal rates, potentially widening intermodal’s cost advantage and encouraging additional freight to shift from trucks to rail-based service.

Pricing Differences Could Drive Mode Shifts

The company expects the pricing gap between truckload and intermodal to remain a factor in shipper decisions over the next year. If truckload costs continue rising more quickly, some freight could migrate to intermodal as customers seek lower transportation costs.

Although customers remain focused on cost and productivity, the market is also seeing more discussions involving growth, capacity planning and longer-term supply chain solutions, according to C.H. Robinson executive Granieri.

A continued improvement in freight demand, combined with more balanced capacity conditions, could create a healthier operating environment over the next 12 months. However, the recovery is not expected to be uniform across all transportation sectors.

Recovery Remains Uneven Across Trucking

Ali Faghri, chief strategy officer for less-than-truckload carrier XPO, also said the recovery is developing unevenly across the freight industry.

Some improvement is emerging in trucking markets, including dry van freight. Greg Plemmons, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Old Dominion Freight Line, said the company is seeing “green shoots” in the market.

Logistics businesses are also reporting a brighter outlook despite continued pressure from fuel, transportation and freight costs. A report from Logistics UK described early signs of improving confidence following a turbulent start to the year.

Carrier Financial Pressure Continues

Despite the improving indicators, financial stress remains a concern for many motor carriers. Kirk Mann said the average three-year failure rate for carriers with fewer than two years of operating experience and their own ICC authority reached 85% during the prolonged freight downturn.

Recent bankruptcy filings also indicate that financial pressure continues to move through the freight economy. Smaller carriers, logistics companies and distribution businesses are confronting debt obligations, limited asset bases and restructuring challenges.

The mixed conditions suggest that any freight recovery will likely depend on sustained demand, disciplined capacity management and the ability of carriers to withstand ongoing cost pressures.