May 2026 could mark a turning point for freight, but the wait may be hard on carriers
Industry analysts are signaling that conditions in the freight market may improve as the calendar moves toward 2026. The message, however, comes with a warning: the timeline for a true reset could arrive too late for some fleets still trying to survive the freight downturn.
In an outlook tied to ongoing trends in the trucking market, C.H. Robinson said that if the current pace of net carrier exits continues, the industry could see a return to “normal” by early 2026. In practical terms, that points to a market that doesn’t rebalance overnight, but gradually stabilizes as capacity leaves and supply and demand get closer to even.
For working drivers and small carriers, why this matters is simple: when too many trucks are chasing too few loads, rates and margins stay under pressure. A “return to normal” typically means a market where freight demand and available trucks are closer to balance, giving carriers a better chance to price work sustainably and keep equipment moving without taking losses.
The outlook also notes that the path to early 2026 is not guaranteed to be smooth or straight. Temporary surges in freight demand—such as produce season—can create brief periods of stronger activity. Those short-lived boosts may reduce the pace of carrier exits for a time, which could also extend the timeline for the overall market to fully reset.
That context matters because seasonal strength can feel like a recovery at the ground level, but it may not be enough to change the broader cycle on its own. The forecast reflects a market still working through a freight recession, where stabilization depends not just on bursts of demand, but on sustained improvement and a capacity level that matches it.