Mexico’s Truck Exports Surge 145% as U.S. Demand Races Higher

Mexico truck exports soar 145% as U.S. demand accelerates

Mexican manufacturers sharply increased heavy-duty vehicle production and exports in September as U.S. customers prepared for new emissions requirements, according to data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) and industry group ANPACT.

Mexico produced 15,181 heavy-duty vehicles in September, up 121.4% from 6,857 units during the same month in 2025. Exports rose even faster, reaching 12,707 vehicles, a 144.6% increase from 5,196 units a year earlier.

The export surge occurred even as Mexico’s domestic truck market remained weak. Retail sales declined 11.3% year over year to 2,980 vehicles, while wholesale sales increased 17.9% to 2,965 units.

For fleets and drivers operating across North America, the figures underscore Mexico’s role as a major source of commercial trucks for the U.S. market. They also show a widening gap between export demand and purchasing activity inside Mexico, where carriers continue to delay equipment replacement decisions.

U.S. demand drives September increase

Rogelio Arzate, executive president of ANPACT, said U.S. demand tied to the transition to new Environmental Protection Agency emissions standards scheduled for 2027 was a major factor behind the increase.

“The reason why production and exports are growing at the levels they are is precisely because the United States, our main trading partner, is currently undergoing this technology shift,” Arzate said during an October industry news conference.

Manufacturers and customers are adjusting production and purchasing plans ahead of the standards change. Arzate said U.S. clients were requesting a significant number of vehicles, contributing to the increase in Mexican production and shipments north.

The September numbers represent a substantial rebound from the same month last year, although monthly comparisons can be affected by production and shipping schedules. Through the first nine months of 2026, Mexico exported 98,394 heavy-duty vehicles, approximately 12% more than during the comparable period in 2025.

Freight vehicles accounted for 98,389 of those exports, up 12.1% year over year. Mexico produced 117,121 heavy-duty vehicles during the first nine months, a 10.3% increase from the same period last year. Freight vehicles represented 114,443 units of that production.

U.S. takes most Mexican-built heavy-duty vehicles

The United States remained Mexico’s dominant heavy-duty vehicle export market. Mexican manufacturers shipped 90,967 heavy-duty vehicles to the U.S. from January through September, an increase of 9.6% from the same period in 2025.

That volume represented approximately 92.5% of Mexico’s heavy-duty vehicle exports during the first nine months of the year. The concentration means changes in U.S. emissions rules, trade policy or fleet purchasing patterns can quickly affect Mexican factories and the North American supply chain.

Canada was a smaller but growing destination. Heavy-duty vehicle shipments to Canada increased 47.6% year over year through September. During September alone, Mexico exported 680 heavy-duty vehicles to Canada, more than twice the number shipped in the same month of 2025.

Other markets with year-to-date export growth included Colombia, Peru, Honduras and Guatemala. Shipments to Chile, El Salvador, Ecuador and Costa Rica declined.

Diesel-powered vehicles continued to dominate Mexican heavy-duty manufacturing and exports. ANPACT reported no electric or natural gas-powered heavy-duty vehicles produced or exported during September.

Domestic Mexican truck market remains under pressure

Mexico’s domestic market has not followed the same path as its export sector. Retail sales fell for the eighth consecutive month on a year-over-year basis in September. Through the first nine months of 2026, retailers sold 25,289 heavy-duty vehicles, down 17.5% from the comparable period last year.

Tractor-truck sales were particularly weak. Mexican dealers sold 1,153 tractor-trucks in September, a 14% decline from September 2025. Sales of other freight trucks edged up 0.5% to 1,378 units.

Combined retail sales of freight vehicles totaled 2,531 units, down 6.7% year over year. Passenger vehicles, including buses, declined 30.5% to 449 units.

Cristina Vázquez, coordinator of economic studies at the Mexican Association of Automotive Distributors, said the market was still affected by a surge in purchases during 2024. Fleet operators accelerated acquisitions ahead of regulatory changes that year, pulling some demand forward from 2025 and 2026.

Vázquez also cited uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and the upcoming review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement as factors discouraging major fleet investments. AMDA projected 2026 heavy-duty vehicle retail sales of about 36,051 units but said the total could be lower if purchasing remains subdued.

Industry seeks tariff relief and fleet incentives

ANPACT is working with Mexican authorities on measures to support domestic fleet renewal and address U.S. tariffs on commercial vehicles and components. The association is seeking lower tariffs and the continuation of existing North American rules-of-origin requirements.

Those rules require manufacturers to meet regional content thresholds under the trade agreement. Arzate said manufacturers have made significant investments in production facilities and supply chains to comply with them.

ANPACT is also discussing accelerated depreciation, financing guarantees and a proposed scrappage program to encourage carriers to replace older equipment. The association is coordinating with Mexico’s development bank, Nacional Financiera, on additional financing incentives.

For now, the September data point to a commercial vehicle industry being pulled in two directions: strong U.S.-bound demand ahead of an emissions technology transition, and a Mexican domestic market constrained by replacement-cycle effects, trade uncertainty and cautious fleet spending.