2025’s peak retail season the best for trucking in years
The 2025 peak retail season delivered one of the strongest late-year setups trucking has seen in years, with clear signs of tightening capacity and stronger pricing during the holiday push.
One key marker was tender rejections, which topped out during the season. Tender rejections matter to drivers because they typically rise when carriers have more options and are less willing to accept contract loads at lower rates, a sign that available trucks are being absorbed by demand.
Spot rates also posted a notable peak-season climb. Rates moved from a seasonal low of $2.32 per mile on November 15 to $2.76 per mile by December 28, an 18.9% increase over roughly six weeks. For drivers, that kind of move is a straightforward signal that loads were paying more as the calendar moved deeper into the retail rush.
Refrigerated freight followed a slightly different set of pressures. Tariffs have had less of an impact on the refrigerated truckload market because a large portion of the seasonal demand surge seen in May and June comes from domestically grown crops. That means reefer demand can be driven more by U.S. harvest cycles than by imported goods flows.
Overall, the late-2025 peak season stood out for two simple reasons that matter behind the wheel: stronger pricing as December progressed, and the kind of capacity tightening that shows up when rejections rise and carriers have leverage.