Tariffs, enforcement and cargo theft reshape U.S.–Mexico trade in 2025
The heavy-duty vehicle industry saw exports plunge nearly 60% in September as shippers and manufacturers adjusted ahead of a major policy change: a 25% U.S. tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks that took effect Nov. 1.
Mexico is a key production base for heavy trucks headed north. About 70% of heavy-duty trucks manufactured in Mexico are shipped to the U.S., tying cross-border freight volumes closely to U.S. demand, pricing, and trade policy.
The truck tariff landed in a broader environment of elevated import duties. U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports now total 47.5%, based on calculations from Chad Bown of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Over the first three quarters of the year, the value of goods coming into the U.S. from China fell nearly 25%.
Trade shifts are showing up across North American lanes. Imports from Canada also declined during the same period, while the value of products from Mexico, Vietnam, and Taiwan increased year-to-date.
For drivers, these developments matter because tariff changes and shifting sourcing patterns can move freight between lanes and equipment types. When major categories like medium- and heavy-duty trucks face new duties, the ripple effects can be felt in cross-border volumes tied to manufacturing and distribution networks.
- Exports of heavy-duty vehicles dropped sharply in September ahead of the Nov. 1 tariff start date.
- China-related tariffs remain high, and import values from China fell through the first three quarters.
- Mexico’s role in U.S. supply chains continues to grow, even as other import sources decline.