Tariffs, enforcement and cargo theft reshape U.S.–Mexico trade in 2025
Exports tied to the heavy-duty vehicle industry dropped nearly 60% in September as manufacturers and shippers moved ahead of a new U.S. tariff on medium- and heavy-duty trucks, according to the information provided. The 25% tariff took effect Nov. 1, creating a clear deadline that appears to have pulled freight forward into earlier weeks and months.
The shift matters for drivers because Mexico-built trucks and related freight are a steady part of cross-border lanes. The details provided also note that about 70% of heavy-duty trucks manufactured in Mexico are shipped to the United States, underscoring how dependent the supply chain is on predictable trade rules and border processing.
For trucking, swings like this can show up as uneven freight: a rush to move product before a tariff hits, followed by a quieter period after the policy takes effect. The September plunge highlighted how quickly shippers can change plans when costs and deadlines shift.
The truck tariff wasn’t happening in isolation. In early February 2025, trade policy moved quickly across multiple fronts:
- Feb. 3, 2025: The U.S. imposed tariffs on Canada, China, and Mexico, with retaliation promised.
- Feb. 4, 2025: The U.S. and China traded tariff actions, while Canadian and Mexican tariffs were delayed.
- Feb. 11, 2025: President Trump adjusted steel and aluminum tariffs and directed Customs to increase enforcement.
That combination of tariffs and stepped-up enforcement can affect freight in practical ways drivers recognize at the ground level: changes in import flows, tighter border checks, and pressure on schedules when freight has to move before a cost increase or gets held up in processing.
At the same time, the headline issues around U.S.–Mexico trade in 2025 include enforcement and cargo theft, both of which can add risk and complexity to cross-border operations. In this environment, freight patterns can turn on policy announcements and the way those policies are enforced at the border.