Container Shipping Fuel Costs Stay High Despite Easing Supply Concerns

Container shipping fuel prices remain elevated as supply fears ease

Marine fuel prices have retreated from their sharpest highs, but they remain far above January levels, keeping pressure on container lines and the broader freight market.

The cost of bunker fuel for ocean-going vessels more than doubled in some major markets during the first nine months of 2026. The increase followed disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, longer vessel routes and concern that supplies of key marine-fuel grades could become difficult to obtain.

Industry executives now say the immediate availability crisis has eased at many major bunkering ports. However, ship operators are still paying substantially more for fuel, and prices vary widely by region. That leaves carriers, shippers and other transportation providers dealing with higher and less predictable operating costs.

In Singapore, the world’s largest bunkering center, very-low-sulphur fuel oil, or VLSFO, was assessed at about $908 per metric ton during the week cited by marine-fuel analyst Ship & Bunker. Marine gasoil was around $1,448 per ton, while high-sulphur fuel oil was approximately $770 per ton.

Prices were lower in Rotterdam, where VLSFO was about $731 per ton, and in Houston, at roughly $804 per ton. Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates, remained considerably more expensive at about $1,005 per ton. The premium at Fujairah reflects the continuing effect of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for energy shipments and a major regional bunkering center.

Bunkering activity at Fujairah has recovered to approximately 40% of its prewar level, according to industry comments reported from the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference. That is an improvement from the most severe period of the disruption, but it remains well below normal.

Prices remain well above January levels

Singapore VLSFO rose from $433.50 per metric ton on Jan. 1 to $878.50 by Sept. 11, an increase of more than 100%. Prices have fallen from their highest point during the supply disruption, but they are still more than 60% above pre-conflict levels, according to Reuters.

The market has also been affected by renewed concerns over violence in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude moved above $107 per barrel on Sept. 14 as traders accounted for the risk of vessel detours, disrupted tanker traffic and constrained access to crude and fuel-oil feedstocks from the Gulf region.

Refiners have focused heavily on higher-margin gasoline and diesel production. That has threatened the availability of blending components used to produce compliant VLSFO, particularly in Asia, which relies heavily on Gulf supply flows.

Gisele Widdershoven, founder of maritime and energy advisory firm Blue Water Strategy, said shortages could return in specific locations or fuel grades if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or only partly usable into the second half of 2026.

“Shortages are to be expected, not necessarily everywhere, but in key grades and key locations,” Widdershoven said.

Fuel is only one part of higher freight rates

Bunker fuel can represent as much as 60% of a container ship’s voyage cost. Even modest changes in fuel prices can therefore increase the cost of moving goods and push freight rates above levels that underlying cargo demand alone would support.

Fuel is not the only factor behind higher container rates. Disruptions through the Suez and Panama canals have forced some vessels to take longer routes, increasing sailing distances, fuel consumption, insurance costs and port congestion. Those changes pushed global shipping ton-miles up by 4.2%.

Rates from Asia to the United States have nearly doubled from levels at the end of February, when the Iran conflict began, according to Xeneta and Drewry data cited in the supplied material. The increases have been linked to higher fuel costs, longer voyages and some frontloading by importers seeking to move cargo before costs rise further.

However, higher spot rates do not necessarily indicate stronger demand. A FreightWaves analyst said demand was “off quite sizably” from the previous year and attributed much of the increase to the market power of major ocean carriers. Carrier alliances can coordinate schedules and manage available capacity. When rates weaken, carriers may withdraw ships or blank sailings, reducing capacity and supporting prices.

That distinction matters to trucking companies and drivers handling port drayage, rail transfers and inland distribution. A container may generate more revenue for a carrier without representing a broader increase in freight volumes. At the same time, congestion, schedule changes and rerouting can create uneven work patterns at ports and intermodal facilities.

Higher costs can reach inland freight

Container lines generally seek to recover higher fuel costs through bunker adjustment factors, emergency fuel surcharges or increased spot rates. Those charges are first applied to ocean freight, but they can eventually affect importers, warehouses, retailers and inland transportation providers.

The St. Louis Fed estimated that the early-2026 fuel shock increased the fuel cost of a typical China-to-U.S. West Coast voyage from $155 to $269 per 20-foot container for a newer vessel. For an older ship, the increase was from $360 to $626 per container.

Fleet age and efficiency are important because older or less efficient ships consume more fuel for each container moved. Delays can add to the expense if vessels must increase speed to maintain schedules. A single large vessel carrying about 3,875 forty-foot equivalent units could use 217 tons of fuel per day. At $552 per ton, a 28-day round trip would produce a fuel bill of more than $3.3 million, before any additional cost from delays or rerouting.

Ship & Bunker recently raised its expected fourth-quarter average for a 20-port VLSFO benchmark to $758 per ton, up from a previous estimate of $646. It projected Singapore VLSFO would average $720 per ton during the quarter, although prices at the time remained above that forecast.

For truckers serving ports and distribution centers, the immediate effect is less about marine fuel itself and more about the cost and reliability of the freight moving through the network. Ocean carriers can generally secure fuel again at major hubs, but higher prices, regional shortages and volatile surcharges will continue to influence container rates and the flow of imported cargo.