Diesel Prices Keep Rising: How Much Worse Can It Get?

Diesel prices have climbed sharply amid refinery outages, tight inventories and geopolitical disruptions, raising operating costs for trucking, agriculture, construction and other diesel-dependent industries. Analysts warn that a potential U.S. ban on diesel exports could produce uneven results, lowering prices in some regions while increasing costs elsewhere and tightening supplies in overseas markets.

Diesel costs are spreading through the economy

Diesel is used to power heavy trucks, farm equipment, construction machinery, school buses and backup generators. Because those vehicles and machines move goods and support production, higher diesel prices can affect freight rates and the cost of everyday products.

“People don’t really react to diesel prices the way they do to gas prices,” oil analyst Tom Kloza said. “What they don’t realize is the price increases there really do reflect the price of everything they pay.”

Gregg Ibendahl, an associate professor of agricultural economics at Kansas State University, said economic pressures are adding to the impact of refinery and supply disruptions. Agriculture is particularly exposed because diesel is used throughout planting, harvesting and transportation.

Estimates cited in the material indicate that war-related disruptions, damaged refineries in Russia and regional diesel shortages could add as much as $12,500 in fuel costs for every 1,000 acres of crops harvested.

Prices and inventories remain under pressure

U.S. diesel prices reportedly reached $6.52 per gallon, compared with an average of about $3.63 at the beginning of 2025 and $3.68 in February. Forty-seven states were reported to have recorded all-time-high diesel prices on Sept. 22.

U.S. diesel inventories were also described as being at their lowest seasonal level since recordkeeping began in 1982. Analysts said limited inventories could leave the market vulnerable to additional refinery outages, severe weather or shipping disruptions.

In Europe, diesel prices were reported to have risen about 40% since the beginning of the year, compared with a roughly 29% increase for gasoline. In the United Kingdom, diesel powers approximately 30% of passenger vehicles and 38% of heavy goods vehicles, increasing the potential effect on household budgets and freight costs.

Export ban could create regional winners and losers

Former President Donald Trump said he was seriously considering a U.S. diesel export ban, despite warnings from the oil industry that the policy could raise prices in some markets.

Restricting exports would leave more diesel in the domestic market and could temporarily reduce prices in areas near major refining centers, including parts of Mississippi and Louisiana. However, regions such as the Northeast rely more heavily on imported diesel and could face higher costs if supplies are redirected.

The longer-term effect would depend on refinery production, domestic demand and international supply conditions. An export restriction could also worsen diesel shortages in Europe by removing a major source of supply from the global market.

Alan Gelder, senior vice president for refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood Mackenzie, said a major release of diesel reserves could reduce wholesale prices by $20 to $30 per barrel, equivalent to approximately 10 to 15 euro cents per liter at the pump.

Freight rates face continued fuel pressure

For trucking companies, sustained diesel volatility could keep upward pressure on fuel surcharges and overall freight rates. Fleets would face higher costs not only for line-haul operations but also for local deliveries, idling, refrigeration and equipment movement.

Kloza warned that a cold winter could make the situation significantly worse by increasing demand for heating oil, which competes with diesel for refinery capacity and available supply.

With diesel serving as a foundation of freight transportation and industrial activity, further disruptions could continue to affect carriers, shippers, farmers and consumers across the United States and international markets.