Spot Rates Rise While Trucking Jobs Stall: What’s Driving the Disconnect?

Trucking employment held steady in October as spot-market rates continued to run above year-ago levels, according to federal labor data and freight-market reports. The latest figures point to improving pricing power for carriers, although freight demand remains uneven across equipment types and sectors.

Trucking jobs remain stable

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that trucking jobs were essentially unchanged in October. The stability comes after an extended period of excess capacity that began following the freight boom of 2020 and 2021.

Industry data indicate that capacity has begun to tighten in some markets. Higher rates are giving truckload carriers more leverage in negotiations, even as retail demand, personal consumption expenditures and industrial output remain relatively soft.

Spot rates remain elevated

DAT Freight and Analytics reported that spot linehaul rates were as much as 35% higher than a year earlier during the first week of November. Recent rate updates also showed gains across several equipment categories, including dry van, refrigerated and flatbed freight.

One seven-day rate update placed the national averages at approximately $3.11 per mile for van freight, $3.70 for reefer freight and $3.65 for flatbed freight. The figures include linehaul revenue and fuel surcharge and are based on broker-to-carrier transactions.

DAT also reported that load posts increased while truck posts declined during the final full week of October. That shift pushed load-to-truck ratios higher, indicating a thinner pool of available equipment in the spot market.

Flatbed outlook is mixed

Flatbed pricing has remained supported by construction, industrial freight and activity related to artificial intelligence data-center projects. Flatbed spot rates averaged about $3.36 per mile from January through October, the highest average for that period in DAT’s monthly records dating to 2010.

However, DAT expects national flatbed spot rates to ease modestly over the following 35 days, with a projected average near $2.60 per mile and a forecast range of $2.53 to $2.66. Construction and industrial freight typically slow around the Thanksgiving holiday and toward the end of the year, which could limit near-term demand.

Market recovery remains uneven

Refrigerated rates broke higher during the summer and have remained elevated, while dry van pricing has also strengthened. In contrast, some monthly data showed flatbed rates declining from the previous month despite remaining well above year-ago levels.

The rate gains have not been uniform. Linehaul increases accounted for most of the improvement in van and reefer pricing, while fuel made a larger contribution to flatbed gains in some reporting periods.

The combination of steady employment, higher spot rates and reduced truck availability suggests that the freight market is moving away from the excess-capacity conditions that dominated much of the recent downturn. Still, sluggish freight volumes and seasonal slowdowns remain limiting factors for carriers heading into the end of the year.