Why Trucking Rates Stay Flat Despite a 12.8% Load Rejection Rate

Trucking Market Remains Flat Despite 12.8% Tender Rejection Rate

Truckload tender rejections are running at 12.8%, roughly twice the level recorded at the same time last year. Yet the broader freight market has not developed the tightening momentum many carriers and drivers typically expect ahead of Thanksgiving and the year-end holiday season.

That disconnect was the focus of a recent FreightWaves discussion featuring data analysts Craig Fuller and Julie Van de Kamp. They said the rejection rate remains elevated, but it has changed very little in recent weeks. The index is down by only about one percentage point over the past 20 days, a sign that the market has largely leveled off rather than continuing to tighten.

For drivers and carriers, that means a higher rejection rate does not automatically translate into a rapidly improving spot market. Tender rejections measure the share of contracted loads that carriers decline. When that figure rises, shippers generally have to look for coverage elsewhere, often through the spot market. But the effect depends on how quickly freight demand is growing and whether enough trucks remain available to handle the additional loads.

In this case, the rejection rate is well above last year’s approximately 6%, but the lack of recent momentum suggests that the market is not accelerating as sharply as many expected. Van de Kamp said she would like to see more pressure and tightening before concluding that the market is positioned for a stronger year ahead.

Demand is improving, but not surging

There are signs that freight volumes are moving in the right direction. Fuller said November’s Outbound Tender Volume Index was averaging 11,434, up 12% from November of the previous year and about 3% from October. That represents the first meaningful demand increase heading into the holiday period, according to the discussion.

Even so, the analysts said the increase has not produced the kind of sustained momentum commonly associated with peak season. The market is showing more freight than it did a year ago, but the gains have not yet created broad pressure across all equipment types and regions.

That distinction matters for drivers. More tenders can improve opportunities in specific markets, but a flat overall trend may limit how quickly rates rise or how consistently outbound loads are available. A carrier moving through a strong freight pocket may see better conditions than one operating in a market where volumes remain balanced with capacity.

Reefer freight is tightening faster

Refrigerated transportation is showing considerably more strain than the dry van market. Reefer tender rejections are at 21%, compared with 12.6% a year ago. Thanksgiving food shipments are contributing to the increase, with seasonal demand placing additional pressure on refrigerated capacity.

Van de Kamp also pointed to a forecast for a strong El Niño as a potential risk to reefer operations this winter. Some forecasters have described the expected event as unusually strong. Weather disruptions could create additional challenges for temperature-controlled freight, including food and protect-from-freeze shipments involving products such as electronics.

For reefer drivers, the combination of holiday food demand and winter weather could create more regional volatility. However, the discussion did not suggest that every refrigerated lane will experience the same level of pressure. Conditions will continue to depend on shipment volumes, weather and the availability of equipment in each market.

Equipment types are moving in different directions

Spot-rate trends also show a divided freight market. Refrigerated rates rose sharply in July and have remained elevated. Flatbed rates continue to hold a premium, supported in part by industrial activity and construction tied to artificial intelligence data centers.

Fuller cited C.H. Robinson’s 2026 flatbed cost-per-mile forecast, which called for a 28% year-over-year increase, followed by another 10% increase projected for 2027. Those figures reflect a stronger environment for flatbed freight than for dry van operations.

Dry van rates, by contrast, have largely flattened. That is significant because dry van represents a large share of the truckload market and is often the clearest indicator of broad conditions for general freight haulers. A flat dry van market can make the overall environment feel soft even when reefer and flatbed carriers are seeing stronger demand.

Regional pressure is emerging

The Pacific Northwest is beginning to tighten as apple, potato and Christmas tree harvests increase. Van de Kamp described the region as a market that can remain quiet for much of the year before changing quickly during seasonal harvests.

Early November normally brings some rate relief before Thanksgiving, according to comments cited from C.H. Robinson. This year, that relief could be more limited, although the extent of the change will depend on how freight volumes develop during the holiday period.

The next two weeks around Thanksgiving are expected to provide a clearer test of the market’s strength. If volumes continue to build, the current elevated rejection rate could translate into more pressure on available capacity. If demand levels off, the market may remain uneven, with stronger conditions concentrated in reefer, flatbed and select regional lanes.

For now, the numbers point to a market that is tighter than last year but not yet gaining speed. Truckload rejections are elevated, November volumes are improving and some specialized segments are under pressure. At the same time, dry van rates remain mostly flat and the overall rejection trend has stalled. That combination leaves carriers and drivers facing a market that is firmer in places, but still short of the broad peak-season surge many were expecting.