Could Relaxed Fuel Economy Rules Revive America’s Auto Freight Industry?

CAFE Standards Reset: Looser Fuel Economy Rules Are Unlikely to Restart Auto Freight

The U.S. Department of Transportation’s reset of Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards gives automakers more flexibility to build trucks and SUVs, but it is not expected to create a major increase in truckload freight in the near term.

The more immediate signal is coming from the freight market itself. SONAR data shows truckload tender rejections have risen sharply in 2026, even as the amount of freight moving under accepted tenders has remained flat to slightly lower. That points to a capacity-driven market rather than a demand surge.

For professional drivers and carriers, the distinction matters. More rejected loads can make freight appear plentiful, but the data indicates that fewer available trucks—not a significant increase in shipments—are driving the current tightness.

CAFE standards are being reset

On Sept. 28, USDOT finalized its “Freedom Means Affordable Cars” rule, lowering the fuel economy path for new vehicles through model year 2031. The new schedule reaches a fleet average of 34.5 miles per gallon by 2031, compared with roughly 50.4 mpg under the previous rules.

The revised standards also do not assume that automakers will produce electric vehicles or rely on credit trading to meet their requirements. That gives manufacturers more room to plan truck, SUV, internal-combustion and hybrid production according to market demand and profitability.

USDOT says the rule could reduce the average price of a new vehicle by about $1,300 and save consumers $138 billion over five years. However, the rule does not directly change vehicle tariffs, interest rates, fuel prices or other costs affecting buyers and manufacturers.

In addition, the civil penalty for failing to meet CAFE requirements was set at zero in July 2025. That means the revised targets function more as a planning framework than as a significant direct financial constraint.

Truck-heavy automakers stand to benefit

The Detroit Three are positioned to benefit because their U.S. lineups rely heavily on pickups and SUVs. More flexibility under CAFE could make it easier for them to continue building those vehicles without offsetting their fuel-economy averages with larger numbers of electric vehicles or smaller cars.

That could support production and parts activity in Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee and South Carolina. Those regions contain major assembly plants and dense supplier networks that generate freight for dry van, flatbed, specialized vehicle-hauling and rail operations.

Still, the effect is expected to develop slowly. Vehicle programs typically require years of planning, and any meaningful changes in product mix are more likely to appear in model years 2027 through 2029 than in the current quarter.

Auto demand is also facing pressure from high transaction prices, elevated borrowing costs and fuel-price concerns. Cox Automotive forecast 2026 U.S. vehicle sales at 16.1 million units, while the average transaction price reached $50,089 in August. Those conditions may limit how much additional production a regulatory change can generate.

SONAR data shows a capacity story

SONAR’s third-quarter data provides a clearer picture of the current truckload market. National tender volume increased 8.5% year over year, from an index reading of 10,447 in the third quarter of 2025 to 11,338 in the same period of 2026.

However, the national tender rejection rate rose from 5.3% to 14.5%. When rejected freight is removed from the tender volume, implied accepted volume declined about 2%, from 9,892 to 9,693.

Detroit showed a similar pattern. Tender volume increased 13.1%, from 206.1 to 233.1, but the rejection rate climbed from 5% to 17.6%. Implied accepted volume fell about 1.9%, from 195.8 to 192.0.

In practical terms, shippers are tendering more loads, but a much larger share is being rejected. Because rejected shipments can be re-tendered, the overall tender count can rise without a corresponding increase in freight actually moving.

For drivers, that can translate into tighter capacity, more rate pressure on available trucks and additional difficulty covering shipments even when underlying demand is not growing significantly. Detroit’s rejection rate, nearly three percentage points above the national third-quarter average, shows that auto-related markets are already relatively tight.

Only a small freight increase is expected

The estimated freight effect from the CAFE reset is modest. The base case calls for roughly a 0.05% increase in national truckload volume, phased in over 2027 through 2029. In core auto markets such as Detroit, Toledo and Indianapolis, the increase could reach about 0.3%.

A more optimistic scenario would produce a national increase of about 0.1%, while a weaker response could result in an increase closer to 0.03%. Even the high-end estimate remains small compared with the year-over-year change in tender rejections.

That scale difference is important. A 0.05% to 0.1% increase in freight demand is minor beside a national rejection-rate increase from 5.3% to 14.5%. The current market is therefore being shaped primarily by trucks leaving or reducing their participation in the market, not by a sudden increase in auto freight.

What the reset means for trucking

Looser CAFE rules may protect existing domestic truck and SUV production and support parts freight in the Midwest and Southeast. They could also help preserve work for car haulers, rail providers and carriers serving automotive suppliers.

But the rule is unlikely to restart the broader truckload market by itself. Any freight benefit will depend on actual vehicle sales, production schedules, plant investment and supplier demand. Higher fuel prices, tariffs and borrowing costs could have a larger effect on vehicle demand than the fuel-economy change.

For now, the central trucking story remains capacity. Accepted truckload volume is flat to down, while tender rejections have nearly tripled. A genuine improvement in auto freight would show up as rising accepted volume accompanied by stable or declining rejection rates—not simply more rejected tenders.