Freight Volumes Diverge From Port Import Activity

Freight volume out of sync with ports’ import activity

U.S. retailers are preparing for a solid holiday sales season while pulling back on new imports, creating a widening gap between consumer demand, port activity and the freight available to move over the road.

The latest Global Port Tracker from Hackett Associates and the National Retail Federation projects U.S. container imports will remain below 2 million twenty-foot-equivalent units (TEUs) per month through March 2026. The forecast calls for double-digit year-over-year declines in November and December, followed by continued weakness in the first quarter.

Imports are expected to fall 14.4% in November and 19.9% in December compared with the same months last year. The tracker projects volumes of 1.98 million TEUs in January and 1.85 million in February.

For trucking companies and independent drivers, the figures suggest that strong port activity in one period may not translate into steady container moves in the following months. Retailers brought forward large quantities of merchandise earlier in the year, reducing the need for immediate restocking and making freight patterns less predictable.

“We expect a small decline in imports this year versus 2024 and a larger pullback in the first quarter of 2026,” Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates said.

Frontloading shifts the freight cycle

U.S. container imports increased 3.7% year over year during the first half of 2025 as shippers moved cargo ahead of potential tariff increases. The Global Port Tracker now expects total 2025 import volume to finish 2.3% below 2024 levels.

The decline is partly a comparison issue. Importers also moved unusually large volumes late in 2024 because of labor disruptions, including a brief strike involving several East and Gulf Coast ports. As a result, this year’s fourth-quarter numbers are being measured against an elevated base.

Retailers are also carrying more holiday merchandise than usual. Tariff concerns encouraged companies to bring in back-to-school apparel, early Christmas inventory and event-related products such as World Cup jerseys, flags and large-screen televisions ahead of the normal peak season.

That frontloading may help keep store shelves stocked, but it changes when transportation demand appears. James Roe of AlixPartners said retailers’ advance buying “shows up at the ports but not yet on the highway.” The comment reflects a key distinction for drivers: containers may enter the country early, while the truck moves tied to replenishment and distribution occur later—or are reduced because warehouses are already full.

Tariffs keep planning difficult

Retailers are keeping inventory decisions conservative as U.S. tariff policy continues to change. Although an agreement temporarily cut the additional “fentanyl tax” on Chinese imports in half, the tariff rate remains near 47%, according to the supplied information. That is still substantially higher than duties on goods from some alternative Asian sourcing markets.

Those differences are influencing purchasing decisions, but shifting production is not simple for every company. Yedi chief executive Michael Djavaheri said the housewares company has raised prices by about 10% while absorbing additional costs that cannot be fully passed to customers. He also said the company is selecting inventory carefully because moving production away from China is difficult for products that require large-scale manufacturing capacity.

At the Port of Los Angeles, cargo volume rose 8% year over year in June, while imports increased 32% from May. The jump followed a temporary pause in reciprocal tariffs between the United States and China, which prompted retailers to move goods during the reprieve.

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka described the outlook as uncertain after the administration moved tariff deadlines for several countries to Aug. 1. The uneven timing of tariff announcements has made it difficult for importers, carriers and transportation providers to plan freight flows with confidence.

Retail sales remain positive, but inventory is tight

The import decline does not mean retailers expect consumers to stop spending. Global Port Tracker analysts said U.S. retail sales are on pace to exceed $1 trillion in 2025, representing growth of roughly 3% to 4% from last year.

However, sales growth and import growth are not moving together. Retailers stocked much of their holiday merchandise early, while mixed economic signals and tariff exposure are encouraging them to avoid building excessive inventories. The result is a retail sector that expects sales to rise but is ordering cautiously.

Earlier AlixPartners research pointed to a similar consumer pattern. The firm projected holiday sales growth of 2% to 5% and found that 26% of surveyed consumers planned to spend less than the previous year. Among households earning less than $45,000 annually, 43% expected to reduce spending. The survey also found that shoppers were increasingly waiting for sales and delaying holiday purchases.

For drivers, the immediate issue is not simply whether ports are busy. It is whether import volume is arriving at a steady pace, moving inland quickly and generating repeat loads after the initial drayage move. Frontloaded freight can produce strong bursts of activity followed by quieter periods, particularly when retailers are trying to sell through inventory before placing new orders.

The Global Port Tracker forecasts first-quarter 2026 imports to decline 9% to 17% year over year. Hackett said the “on-again, off-again” tariff policy has made long-term planning difficult for importers and carriers alike. Until purchasing patterns stabilize, freight availability may continue to vary sharply by port, lane and time of year.