Spot Rates Surge 50% as Rail Volumes Reach Record Highs

Spot Truckload Rates Rise 50% as Intermodal Volumes Reach Recent Highs

Truckload pricing has moved sharply higher while rail volumes continue to gain ground, creating a widening divide between the two transportation modes as shippers approach annual bid season.

According to FreightWaves SONAR data presented in a Nov. 11 market update, truckload spot rates reached $3.56 per mile, including fuel, up 52% from a year earlier. Contract rates also climbed, rising 25% year over year to $2.88 per mile. The spread between the two markets is increasing pressure on shippers that rely on the spot market to cover freight that falls outside their contracted capacity.

Earlier SONAR readings had placed national truckload spot rates near $2.80 per mile, compared with $2.33 per mile a year earlier. The different readings reflect changing market snapshots, but both point to the same trend: truckload pricing is substantially higher than it was last year.

For professional drivers and carriers, the higher rates come as capacity remains relatively tight and operating costs remain elevated. Tender rejections were reported at 12.88%, roughly twice the level recorded in November 2025. Although rejections have eased from a June peak, they remain high enough to disrupt shipper routing guides and force more freight into the spot market.

Tender rejections measure the share of electronically offered loads that carriers decline. When rejection levels rise, shippers often must search for replacement capacity at higher prices. That can create additional pressure on dispatchers, drivers and small fleets, particularly when loads are offered with short notice or require repositioning equipment.

C.H. Robinson has forecast that truckload spot rates will increase 30% this year. Cost per mile has also exceeded earlier expectations. Summer costs were previously projected to peak near $2.10 per mile, but rates reached approximately $2.33 per mile in July. Depending on equipment type and operating model, many over-the-road carriers need rates between $2.70 and $3.25 per mile to maintain healthy profitability amid higher insurance, diesel and driver wage costs.

While truckload pricing has strengthened, intermodal continues to offer a significant cost advantage on many long-haul lanes. The SONAR Intermodal Cost Savings Index showed a 30.2% road-to-rail savings advantage as of Nov. 8. The savings level has remained above 30% for five consecutive months and has nearly doubled year over year.

Intermodal contract rates, by comparison, have increased only 3% to 5% year over year. That relatively stable pricing has made rail an attractive alternative for freight that can tolerate longer transit times and the additional handling associated with terminals and drayage.

Rail volumes are responding to the pricing gap. Association of American Railroads data showed intermodal volume of approximately 291,000 units during the week of Aug. 15, up 2.7% year over year. Total North American intermodal volume was running about 5.1% higher year to date.

SONAR data also showed that October outbound rail volume averaged 44,700 units, the highest monthly reading since 2026 and 9% higher than the same period a year earlier. Loaded outbound containers averaged 35,500 units, also up 9%. Loaded boxes represented about 80% of outbound volume, indicating that the increase was tied primarily to freight demand rather than empty equipment repositioning.

Domestic intermodal volume increased 8% year over year in October, while international intermodal volume rose 11%. Both segments, however, had softened from peaks reached in August and September. Inbound ocean bookings were up 11% year over year in November but had declined 5% to 6% from a July peak.

Intermodal’s advantage is not unlimited. Truckload pricing effectively sets an upper boundary for what railroads can charge. If truck rates continue to rise, rail can remain less expensive while potentially adjusting its own pricing. At the same time, rail providers cannot allow rates to fall too far below truckload levels without putting pressure on margins.

That relationship could become more important as stronger spot pricing begins to influence contract negotiations. If truckload rates remain elevated through the next bid cycle, shippers may shift additional long-haul freight to rail where service and terminal access allow. Increased intermodal demand could then place upward pressure on rail rates, especially in markets operating near capacity.

Drayage may become a limiting factor for that shift. Short-haul truckload volumes in the 100- to 250-mile range were up approximately 14% year over year, a gain that may partly reflect increased movement to and from intermodal terminals. Short-haul tender rejections were also up about 5% to 5.5% year over year, although that segment remained somewhat looser than the broader truckload market.

Service disruptions also affected recent rail results. A technology outage at CSX and flooding on a BNSF line through New Mexico interrupted operations for roughly one to two days in late October. November outbound volumes subsequently eased to approximately 43,800 units month to date.

For drivers and carriers, the market presents a mixed picture. Higher truckload rates can improve revenue opportunities, but they do not eliminate the impact of fuel, insurance, maintenance and labor costs. For shippers, the combination of elevated truckload rates, high tender rejections and strong intermodal demand means transportation planning will depend increasingly on lane-specific capacity, service requirements and the availability of reliable rail and drayage connections.