Van Freight Market Tightens as Capacity Remains Constrained

Van Freight Tightens Up as Capacity Stays Fragile

National truckload tender rejections have climbed to 14% and are holding near a secondary peak comparable to levels seen around Labor Day. Van freight is driving most of the pressure, even though overall shipment demand has not returned to the levels recorded earlier in the year.

The latest SONAR market update indicates that the current tightening is being caused less by a surge in freight and more by the sensitivity of available capacity. That distinction matters for professional drivers and carriers because it suggests that relatively small changes in freight volume or network conditions can still produce noticeable shifts in rates and load availability.

“This is really just, like I said, more of a sensitivity and a fragility that still exists in the market,” Zach Strickland said during the update.

The National SONAR Tender Volume Index did move higher after the holiday, but total tender volumes remain below April levels. In other words, the market is rejecting a larger share of loads without the broad demand growth that typically provides the clearest explanation for a capacity squeeze.

Van freight carries particular weight in the national numbers. Dry van shipments account for an estimated 60% to 70% of all freight tendered in the United States. As a result, a change in van rejection rates has a much larger effect on the overall market than a similar move in a smaller equipment segment.

For drivers, elevated tender rejections generally mean more contracted loads are being turned down by carriers rather than accepted at the originally offered terms. Those loads may then move into the spot market, where shippers and brokers often have to offer higher rates to secure coverage. The effect is not uniform across every lane, but the national trend is showing upward pressure on van spot rates.

Strickland cautioned that the industry is not in the kind of stable capacity environment seen after the surge in equipment and carrier participation during the later stages of the COVID-era freight cycle.

“We are not in a market that you can sit back and rely on capacity coming into it like we saw towards the end of COVID at the, you know, in 2022, where we had this kind of stabilization,” he said.

Rejection rates are also elevated in the other major equipment categories. Refrigerated rejections are running near 20%, with harvest activity helping keep reefer demand and capacity pressure firm. That seasonal influence is expected to continue supporting reefer rejections for the next several months.

Flatbed rejections are near 19%. However, flatbed represents less than 10% of total freight volume, while refrigerated freight accounts for roughly 20%. Those markets can be tight for drivers operating that equipment, but changes in van rejection rates have the greatest impact on the broader truckload network because of the segment’s size.

The Midwest is the main geographic center of the current pressure. Columbus, Joliet, Allentown and Elizabeth, New Jersey, are among the markets being watched closely. Joliet, a major rail hub, was identified as a primary reason rejection rates have remained sticky.

Strong or persistent rejection rates in large freight markets can affect the next available load, the number of reload options and the amount of time a driver may spend waiting for a rate that covers operating costs. Conditions can vary considerably by lane, however, so national averages do not necessarily reflect the experience of every driver or carrier.

The national van spot-rate map is showing mostly upward movement, with isolated softening in Atlanta and Greenville, South Carolina. The broader direction indicates that carriers still have pricing leverage in portions of the network, particularly where contracted capacity is proving less dependable.

Diesel prices are contributing to the upward movement in spot rates, but fuel costs alone do not guarantee that carriers can recover the added expense. As Strickland explained, “You can’t pass along that diesel cost without a market that will allow it.” The current capacity backdrop appears to be giving carriers that opportunity in parts of the van market.

Timing will be important as the market moves toward quarter-end. The final week of a quarter typically brings a seasonal increase in freight activity, which can put additional pressure on available trucks. The current van tightening is already appearing earlier and more strongly than seasonal patterns alone would explain, according to the update.

Historically, October has tended to soften after the quarter closes before freight activity begins building again later in the month. That pattern could create uneven conditions for drivers: tighter coverage and stronger pricing in some lanes before quarter-end, followed by softer opportunities in markets that lose volume during the early part of October.

The central takeaway is that capacity remains fragile even without a major demand surge. With van freight representing the largest share of the truckload market, continued elevated rejections could keep spot rates supported in selected lanes. The Midwest, especially major distribution and rail-linked markets such as Joliet and Columbus, will remain important areas to watch as quarter-end approaches.