Kenco Study: 43% of Shoppers Will Spend More This Peak Season

43% of shoppers plan to spend more this peak, Kenco finds

Consumers are preparing to spend more during the 2026 holiday season, but they are also carrying higher expectations for delivery, returns and shipment visibility. That combination could put additional pressure on retailers, third-party logistics providers and carriers during the peak shipping period.

Kenco’s 2026 Peak Season Consumer Report found that 43% of North American consumers surveyed plan to spend more this peak season. That is more than double the 20% who gave the same response in Kenco’s 2025 survey. Another 39% expect to spend about the same, while 18% plan to spend less, down from 28% last year.

The survey was conducted in August 2026 and included more than 350 consumers, compared with 250 respondents for the 2025 report. Its findings align with other consumer surveys indicating that households expect to spend at least as much as they did during the previous holiday season.

Adobe analysts separately said they expect Cyber Monday to be a standout shopping day this year and could set a record. For the transportation and logistics industry, that points to continued demand for reliable fulfillment and final-mile capacity during a period when order volumes can change quickly.

Frank Loewen, Kenco’s senior vice president of retail operations, said the increase in planned spending could have more than one explanation.

“One, I am in a better place, so I can afford to spend more,” Loewen told FreightWaves. “Another one is I’m expecting prices to go up, but I still have to buy my kids presents, so I’m just going to end up spending more than I did last year for potentially the same item.”

Some of Kenco’s higher-end customers are seeing more volume than they have in the past several years, Loewen said. He said that could be consistent with a K-shaped economy, in which spending trends differ among consumer groups. The survey also showed continued price pressure, with 45% of respondents identifying import tariffs as a concern.

Free shipping remains a consumer expectation

Higher planned spending comes with strong expectations about the cost and speed of fulfillment. Kenco found that 73% of respondents consider free shipping standard when shopping online. Forty-eight percent expect two-day delivery, 47% expect free returns and 40% expect real-time tracking.

For carriers and 3PLs, free shipping does not eliminate transportation costs. It shifts those costs elsewhere in the supply chain. Loewen traced the expectation partly to Amazon Prime, whose membership revenue helps offset the cost of shipping for customers.

“Nothing is free, right?” Loewen said. “When customers are not charged directly, those costs are absorbed elsewhere in the value chain.”

Kenco’s approach is to position inventory as close to population centers and carrier networks as possible, then negotiate carrier rates that leave flexibility for last-mile delivery. The strategy is intended to reduce the distance and cost associated with individual orders while supporting delivery expectations.

Free shipping can also influence how consumers place orders. Loewen said shoppers may add more items when shipping carries no additional charge, then return the products they decide not to keep. Only 5% of respondents said return policies do not matter when deciding where to shop.

More retailers are charging for returns or directing customers to drop-off locations at malls and supermarkets, Loewen said. Those policies can affect customer loyalty. The survey found that 32% of respondents would stop shopping with a retailer after encountering hidden fees.

Inventory accuracy affects trust

Accurate inventory information is another important part of the fulfillment process. Eighty percent of respondents said inaccurate stock levels hurt their trust in a retailer.

Retailers increasingly fulfill orders from a combination of stores and distribution centers instead of relying on a single warehouse. That makes location-level inventory accuracy important, Loewen said, because customers need to know whether a product is available somewhere in the retailer’s network before placing an order.

“They may not know which store or distribution center will fulfill it, but the item has to be available within that network,” he said.

Loewen said Kenco’s warehouse management systems provide real-time inventory data to Shopify storefronts, order management systems and enterprise resource planning software. He said cycle-counting processes maintain inventory accuracy at 99.9% in many cases.

Deal structure may shape buying decisions

The report found that the type of promotion matters nearly as much as whether a promotion is offered. Free shipping was the most preferred deal, selected by 46% of respondents, up slightly from 44% in 2025. It was followed by a straight percentage discount on one item at 42% and flash sales at 35%.

Bundle deals and free gifts with purchase ranked lower, at 20% and 17%, respectively. While many shoppers research and compare products before buying, urgency-based promotions can prompt impulse purchases. Flash sales led that category at 55%, followed by buy-one-get-one or bundle offers at 45%.

Meeting a free-shipping threshold was cited by 34% of respondents as an impulse-buy trigger. Other factors included positive reviews at 26%, influencer discount codes at 22% and personalized recommendations at 20%.

Flexible automation supports peak capacity

Kenco is also using automation to manage seasonal demand. Loewen said traditional peak planning often required operators to add large numbers of workers or install conveyors and other infrastructure sized for the busiest period of the year.

Goods-to-person systems now allow robots to bring products to pickers. Kenco announced plans in 2024 for a 130-robot AutoStore system at its distribution center in Jeffersonville, Indiana, serving multiple e-commerce customers. Loewen said artificial intelligence tools also help group orders so products can be picked more efficiently.

People remain responsible for operating the technology, he said, but flexible automation allows throughput to increase without maintaining the same excess labor and infrastructure capacity throughout the year.

With most holiday merchandise already in the country, according to the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates’ Global Port Tracker, the focus now shifts to moving inventory through fulfillment networks and delivering orders on time. For professional drivers, the season will bring the familiar challenge of handling concentrated freight volumes while retailers and consumers place greater emphasis on cost, visibility and delivery performance.