Shipping Rates Split: Trans-Pacific Surges While Mediterranean Markets Collapse

Trans-Pacific container rates soar while Mediterranean prices sink, and demand explains little

Container shipping rates on the China-to-U.S. West Coast trade have surged while prices on the China-to-Mediterranean route have fallen sharply. The split is striking because booking data does not show an equally dramatic difference in demand.

For trucking companies and drivers serving ports, distribution centers and intermodal terminals, the divergence matters. Ocean rates can influence when importers move freight, how much volume reaches a port and how much work is available for drayage carriers. But the latest data also shows that rate changes do not always provide a reliable measure of underlying cargo demand.

The Freightos Baltic Daily Index for shipments from China to the North American West Coast closed at $8,446 per forty-foot equivalent unit on Sept. 23. That was nearly twice its 12-month average of $4,381 and about four times the level recorded in September 2025.

Rates from China to the Mediterranean moved in the opposite direction. The related index fell to $3,591 per FEU, down more than 50% from its July peak of $7,540. The rate is also below where it began the year.

At the start of the year, shipping a container from China to Mediterranean ports such as Genoa or Valencia cost about 1.7 times as much as moving it to Los Angeles. The relationship has now reversed. A container bound for the U.S. West Coast costs about 2.35 times as much as one headed to the Mediterranean.

Normally, such a difference would suggest that U.S. importers are competing for limited vessel space while European demand is weakening. Booking data from SONAR does not support that conclusion.

Confirmed bookings measured in twenty-foot equivalent units from Shanghai, Ningbo and Yantian to five major Mediterranean ports are up 38% from a year ago. Eleven of the 13 measured lanes show year-over-year growth. On a 28-day average, bookings are up about 11% from the July rate peak.

Bookings from the same Chinese ports to Northern Europe are up 26% year over year and 7.5% since July. Those figures indicate that European cargo demand is holding steady or growing even as ocean rates have been cut roughly in half on the Mediterranean trade.

The North American West Coast picture is less consistent. Total confirmed bookings from China to the U.S. and Canadian West Coast are up about 50% from last year, but most of that increase is concentrated in Long Beach. Bookings on all three measured origin lanes into Long Beach have more than doubled.

The median West Coast lane is up only about 1% year over year. Bookings from Ningbo to Los Angeles are down 33%, while Oakland and Seattle are down on most measured lanes. Even using the most favorable interpretation, booking growth is rising much more slowly than rates.

Bookings are not a perfect measure of containers that will ultimately be loaded. Cargo can be canceled or rolled to a later sailing. Still, the size and breadth of the booking increases make it difficult to dismiss the trends as ordinary data noise.

Supply conditions appear to be contributing to the rate split. On the Asia-Europe trade, carriers have gradually shifted services back through the Suez Canal. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd moved four more Asia-Europe services away from the longer Cape of Good Hope routing during the month.

Container tonnage moving through the Suez Canal is up 54% year to date. Returning to the shorter route releases vessels that had been tied up in Cape diversions, allowing effective capacity to grow faster than cargo volume. Carriers are also rejecting fewer Mediterranean bookings than a year ago, with the rejection rate falling to 7.1% from 8.3%.

The trans-Pacific has faced tighter operating conditions. Typhoon-related congestion at Chinese ports since mid-July has removed ships from rotations and disrupted schedules. Carriers have also relied heavily on blank sailings, announcing nine in one week this month.

Higher bunker fuel costs tied to tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are adding pressure to long-distance routes. Separately, Xeneta reported that only 29% of vessels arrived on time globally in August, marking the third consecutive monthly decline in schedule reliability.

Even so, capacity constraints alone do not fully explain the increase in trans-Pacific rates. SONAR data shows carriers are rejecting fewer West Coast bookings than a year ago: 8.3% compared with 10.1%. That means the sharp rate increase is occurring even though the measured rejection rate has improved.

The data suggests that available space is being managed through pricing rather than through a complete lack of ships. Spot rates apply primarily to cargo not covered by annual contracts. With 10 carriers controlling roughly 90% of global container capacity, relatively small changes in available space can produce large movements in spot prices.

The next major test is expected in early October, when exporters typically push to move cargo before China’s Golden Week factory shutdowns. Analysts expect another increase in trans-Pacific rates before the holiday. Rates could ease afterward if congestion improves and capacity held back from the Pacific returns to service.

The Mediterranean market offers a reminder that ocean prices can fall quickly even when bookings remain firm. For truck drivers and carriers handling port freight, that means rate movements should be viewed alongside booking volumes, vessel schedules, blank sailings and terminal conditions rather than treated as a stand-alone measure of demand.