Tariff Whiplash Throws Cross-Border Trucking Into Turmoil
Cross-border truck traffic between the United States, Canada and Mexico showed mixed results in July, with U.S.-bound Mexican crossings nearly unchanged and southbound Canadian entries falling to their lowest July level in 15 years. The decline comes as escalating tariffs threaten to further disrupt freight flows and equipment utilization across North America.
Canadian truck crossings decline
The latest available data, which runs through July, shows a sharp contrast in cross-border activity. Truck crossings into the United States from Mexico were virtually unchanged, while truck entries from the United States into Canada declined significantly compared with previous July levels.
The downturn in Canadian traffic could deepen as shippers accelerate freight movements ahead of additional tariffs. Industry observers expect some companies to move U.S. exports into Canada before new Canadian duties ranging from 15% to 50% take effect Sept. 8.
That rush could temporarily increase demand for cross-border trucking and warehouse space as businesses build inventory ahead of the tariff deadline. The impact will vary based on whether companies can store additional freight and whether the cost of early shipments is financially justified.
Tariffs threaten equipment balance
The Canadian Trucking Alliance has warned that declining Canadian exports to the United States could create an unusual equipment imbalance for carriers. Fewer southbound loads may leave trucks with reduced opportunities to reload, increasing empty miles and complicating equipment positioning on both sides of the border.
New U.S. tariffs of up to 50% reportedly apply to approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian goods. Vehicles, parts and other transportation-related products are among the items affected. Medium- and heavy-duty trucks built in Ontario, including Ford F-Series and Chevrolet Silverado models, remain part of the broader trade dispute.
Freight forwarders and trucking companies are calling for renewed trade discussions, warning that prolonged tariffs could raise shipping costs and disrupt manufacturing networks that rely on cross-border movement of vehicles, components and other goods.
Automotive supply chains remain exposed
The automotive industry is particularly vulnerable because production networks extend across the United States, Canada and Mexico. Cars, trucks and parts regularly cross national borders multiple times before reaching final customers.
A proposed increase in tariffs on Canadian vehicles from 25% to 50%, potentially beginning Jan. 1, 2027, would add further pressure to manufacturers, suppliers and carriers. Higher duties could alter sourcing decisions, reduce shipment volumes on some lanes and create additional delays as companies adjust their supply chains.
Freight conditions remain uneven
Despite the uncertainty, freight rates have stabilized at a higher baseline in some markets. Capacity remains tight in areas where driver availability is limited, including Laredo, Texas, where load-to-truck ratios continue to show elevated demand for available equipment.
July’s record value for cross-border freight may suggest strong trade activity, but truck counts, tonnage and tariff uncertainty point to a more complicated picture. The coming weeks will show whether the pre-tariff shipping rush produces a short-term surge or leads to weaker freight volumes and equipment imbalances after the new duties take effect.
