Tight Capacity Could Send Freight Rates Soaring in Q4, Uber Warns

Uber Freight warns tight capacity could fuel Q4 freight rate surge

The U.S. freight market is entering the fourth quarter with truckload capacity still under pressure, even as some pricing and tender indicators have begun to stabilize, according to Uber Freight’s Q3 Market Update & Outlook Report.

The company said shippers that continue securing transportation one week at a time could face sharply higher costs if freight demand accelerates during the traditional fourth-quarter peak. Capacity constraints are affecting truckload, less-than-truckload, intermodal and cross-border transportation, while higher diesel prices and changing trade policy are adding uncertainty for carriers and shippers.

“Transportation decisions carry more weight than ever before. Conditions can change quickly, and the cost of reacting too late is often higher than expected,” Uber Freight CEO Rebecca Tinucci said in the report.

For professional drivers and small fleets, the market is being shaped by a combination of stronger rates, elevated operating costs and limited equipment availability. Uber Freight warned that smaller truckload carriers operating on thin margins could park trucks rather than haul freight at a loss if fuel prices remain volatile.

Truckload rates remain well above last year

National average dry van contract linehaul rates reached $2.39 per mile in July, up 18% from July 2025, according to data cited by Uber Freight. The 13-cent increase from June to July was the largest month-to-month gain for that period on record, the company said.

Dry van spot linehaul also averaged $2.39 per mile in July, 47% higher than a year earlier. Spot prices eased after the seasonal July peak, averaging $2.21 per mile during the week of Aug. 26. Even after that decline, rates remained 35.6% above the same week last year and 23.8% above the nine-year seasonal average.

Carriers are also seeking double-digit contract rate increases for this year and next, according to the report. Uber Freight’s primary tender acceptance rate improved from 76% in July to 78% in August as repriced routing guides began to hold and spot-market conditions softened. The rate remains well below the 90% to 94% range seen during the previous three years.

Uber Freight said capacity is not rebuilding as quickly as it typically does during a tightening freight cycle. The report estimates that more than 48,000 noncompliant drivers have exited the industry over the past year. It also said Class 8 truck backlogs represent roughly nine months of production.

The Outbound Tender Rejection Index for the United States stood at 13.45% on Sept. 10. That level was substantially higher than the same period in the previous three years. The Labor Day increase was also larger than the comparable holiday spikes in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Fuel costs add pressure to carrier margins

Diesel prices have added another layer of cost pressure. The national average reached $5.652 per gallon during the week of Aug. 24, the highest level of 2026 and 52.4% above the same week last year. Prices had fallen as low as $4.58 per gallon in early July before rebounding.

For carriers, higher fuel costs can quickly reduce the value of a load, particularly when rates have not adjusted to match the increase. Uber Freight said the combination of fuel volatility and thin operating margins could lead some smaller truckload carriers to take equipment out of service rather than accept unprofitable freight.

The report identified three major forces likely to influence transportation conditions through the fourth quarter: constrained trucking capacity, unstable diesel prices and rapidly changing U.S. trade policy. Those pressures leave less room in the market for unexpected disruptions.

Cross-border capacity remains tight

Mexico-related freight continues to be one of the most constrained areas of the market. Uber Freight said approximately 20,000 Mexican truck drivers lost U.S. visas between April 2025 and April 2026. The number of active Mexican-domiciled southern border carriers was 6.3% lower in late June than at the end of December.

Capacity around Laredo has improved from the extremely tight conditions recorded during the second quarter, but it remains significantly tighter than a year ago. The Laredo dry van load-to-truck ratio was between 8.0 and 8.5 in mid-August, down from about 10 to 1 during the second quarter but still 61.9% higher year over year.

Mexico-to-U.S. long-haul spot rates remained 8% to 15% above mid-February levels, with increases of as much as 30% on critical corridors. Produce exports through Laredo rose 8% year over year during the second quarter, adding to demand for cross-border capacity.

As a result, some shippers are combining direct B-1 driver capacity with transloading and cross-dock operations. Uber Freight described transloading as moving from a temporary workaround to a formal part of network design. The company cited a beverage manufacturer that began routing critical freight through a Laredo cross-dock after missing delivery appointments in Nuevo Laredo.

Intermodal offers an alternative, but the gap is narrowing

Intermodal capacity remains relatively stable and continues to provide an alternative as truckload networks tighten. Fuel surcharges are generally lower per mile than those for truckload, while intermodal linehaul increases typically trail truckload increases by three to six months.

That advantage may be narrowing. Intermodal rates increased during bid season in California and Texas, an early indication of broader pricing pressure. FTR forecasts that 2026 intermodal freight rates will rise 6.2%, excluding fuel.

Rates have also increased 10% or more in capacity-constrained markets such as Los Angeles and Laredo. Peak surcharges out of Los Angeles are ranging from $500 to $1,000 per box and are expected to remain in place through the end of the year.

Uber Freight said September and October provide a relatively stable period for shippers to secure baseline capacity, repair underperforming routing guides and establish backup options before the late-October peak. The company rated truckload and Mexico as having high exposure heading into late October, while intermodal and Canada were rated at medium severity.

The broader trend is a shift toward a more carrier-favorable pricing environment across several transportation modes. For drivers and fleets, that shift is occurring alongside higher fuel costs, continued equipment constraints and changing freight patterns at the border. Whether rates rise further will depend in part on how much demand builds during the fourth-quarter peak and how much usable capacity remains available.