XPO’s August Results Reinforce Third-Quarter Outlook

XPO’s August Metrics Align With Q3 Guidance

Less-than-truckload carrier XPO remains on track to meet its third-quarter outlook after reporting preliminary operating results for August.

XPO said tonnage per day increased 3.7% year over year in August 2026. The increase was driven by a 5.7% rise in shipments per day, partially offset by a 1.8% decline in weight per shipment.

The results support the company’s forecast for a mid-single-digit percentage increase in third-quarter tonnage compared with the same period last year. XPO reported the figures after the market closed Thursday and cautioned that final August results could differ from the preliminary numbers.

For drivers and others who follow freight volumes, the figures offer a snapshot of how much freight is moving through one of North America’s largest LTL networks. XPO is one of the few publicly traded carriers that provides intraquarter operating data, making its updates a useful indicator of activity in the LTL sector.

Shipment growth outpaced tonnage growth

The August results show that XPO handled more shipments, but the average shipment was lighter than it was a year earlier. Shipments per day rose 5.7%, while weight per shipment fell 1.8%.

That combination produced the 3.7% increase in daily tonnage. In practical terms, the network moved more individual shipments, but those shipments contained less freight on average.

The August tonnage increase was lower than the 5.8% year-over-year gain reported for July. However, the year-over-year comparison was more difficult in August because the prior-year baseline was stronger. The July 2025 comparison was approximately four percentage points easier than the August comparison.

Looking at a two-year comparison, which can reduce the effect of unusual year-to-year changes, XPO’s August performance improved from July across shipments, weight per shipment and total tonnage. Tonnage was down about 1% from the comparable period two years earlier in August, an improvement from a 2.9% decline in July.

Seasonal performance remains stronger than usual

XPO previously said that July tonnage was essentially flat with June, even though freight volumes typically weaken during that part of the year. June itself had performed about four percentage points better than the company’s normal seasonal pattern.

The August update indicates that the carrier’s volume performance continued to outperform typical seasonal trends. That is important because the third quarter often includes normal summer disruptions and softer freight activity before the fall shipping cycle develops.

XPO’s current third-quarter guidance calls for tonnage growth in the mid-single-digit percentage range. Based on the July and August updates, the company appears positioned to achieve that target, although September results will determine the final outcome.

Industrial freight shows signs of improvement

The improvement in weight per shipment on a two-year basis may point to a changing freight mix. Heavier shipments are often associated with industrial activity, while lighter shipments can be more common among smaller local businesses and other less-than-truckload customers.

XPO has said its network is handling more freight from local and small-business accounts. Those shipments are generally lighter, which creates a headwind for average weight per shipment. At the same time, the company has said this business can produce stronger margins.

Manufacturing activity also remained in expansion territory in August. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing purchasing managers index registered 54.6, down from July’s four-year high but still above the 50-point level that separates expansion from contraction. The index remained in expansion for an eighth consecutive month.

The new orders subindex fell three points to 53.7 but also remained above 50. New orders are watched as an indicator of future manufacturing activity. Freight volumes typically respond to changes in that measure with a delay of about three months.

Pricing and operating margin remain part of the outlook

XPO does not provide revenue or pricing data in its monthly operating updates. During its second-quarter earnings call, however, the company said contractual rate renewals increased by a mid-single- to high-single-digit percentage in the second quarter.

The company also said it expects yield and revenue per shipment, excluding fuel surcharges, to improve sequentially during the third and fourth quarters. Those measures are important because volume growth alone does not determine financial performance. The mix of freight, pricing and operating efficiency also affects how much revenue and profit the carrier generates from each shipment.

XPO’s adjusted operating ratio outlook for the third quarter also appears unchanged. The company normally experiences a 200- to 250-basis-point deterioration in operating ratio from the second quarter to the third quarter because of seasonal factors. That pattern would normally result in an operating ratio above 82%.

XPO has said it expects to post a third-quarter adjusted operating ratio below 81%, which would represent at least a 180-basis-point improvement from the same period a year earlier.

For professional drivers, the broader significance is that XPO’s network continues to show steady shipment growth even as average shipment size remains under pressure. The August data point to stronger activity across the network, continued changes in freight mix and a third quarter that remains consistent with the company’s stated volume and margin targets.