Ocean Freight Rates Hit One-Year High After US-China Trade Truce

Ocean Rates Reach Yearly Highs as U.S.-China Trade Truce Offers Temporary Relief

Trans-Pacific ocean freight rates have climbed to their highest levels of the year, even as Washington and Beijing extend a trade truce and reduce tariffs on selected imports. The combination of front-loaded shipments, vessel capacity cuts, equipment imbalances and port congestion is keeping pressure on the supply chain.

Spot rates from Asia to the U.S. West Coast recently reached about $8,400 per forty-foot equivalent unit, a new 2026 high. Rates to the U.S. East Coast held near $9,600 per FEU, approximately $200 below their late-August peak.

The higher ocean costs are likely to affect more than importers and ocean carriers. For truck drivers and trucking companies handling drayage, transload and inland moves, elevated rates often coincide with tighter appointment availability, longer container dwell times and less predictable freight flows at major ports and distribution centers.

Three forces drove the May increase

Freight market analysts identified three developments that converged in May and produced a monthly rate increase of roughly 33% to 37% on some trans-Pacific lanes.

First, ocean carriers increased blank sailings, removing scheduled voyages from service in an effort to withdraw capacity and support pricing. The move followed a loss-making fourth quarter in 2025 and continued into the holiday period and late October, according to Freightos. Some carriers also reportedly reduced the amount of space available to contracted forwarders.

Second, carriers repositioned containers and other equipment toward Americas services. That reduced the supply of available 40-foot containers on some China-to-U.S. routes. The shift also pulled effective capacity away from Asia-Europe services, where rates have fallen more sharply. On certain lanes, 20-foot container prices have risen faster than 40-foot rates because of the equipment imbalance.

Third, importers moved up shipments intended for the third-quarter peak season. Businesses sought to get cargo moving before possible changes in trade policy, further rate increases or additional disruptions. The resulting increase in bookings arrived at the same time carriers were restricting capacity.

That combination means the current market is not being driven by demand alone. Freightos said blank sailings, port delays and carrier allocation controls are playing a major role in keeping prices elevated.

Trade truce reduces one source of uncertainty

The United States and China have extended their existing trade truce for two months beyond its scheduled Nov. 10 expiration. The agreement includes tariff reductions on selected imports and calls for two additional leader-level meetings before the end of the year.

The countries plan to reduce tariffs on about $30 billion in counterpart imports to most-favored-nation levels, subject to legal procedures. The changes cover nearly 80 U.S. product categories, including toys, while China’s list includes more than 1,600 entries concentrated largely in agricultural products and commodities.

The relief is limited compared with more than $400 billion in annual China-U.S. trade. Still, it may provide some benefit to importers, retailers and consumers of the affected products. The extension also temporarily reduces the risk of another sharp escalation in trade policy during the year-end shipping and retail cycle.

The agreement could also delay proposed U.S. port-call fees targeting China-linked vessels, although the U.S. Trade Representative had not formally announced a deferral. Freightos said the broader reduction in tensions makes a delay more likely. Such fees had been viewed as a potential cost and operational issue for carriers using Chinese-built or Chinese-operated ships in U.S. trades.

Congestion and fuel risks add pressure

Port congestion remains another important constraint. Sea-Intelligence estimates that delays are absorbing more than 8% of global vessel capacity and could take as long as 10 months to fully unwind.

The situation is also being affected by disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Maritime Commission’s Bureau of Trade Analysis has noted that diesel availability, rather than price alone, becomes a major risk when the waterway is effectively closed. Vessel displacement in the Middle East is reshaping carrier networks and influencing schedule reliability across major routes.

Higher bunker costs and changes to vessel rotations can eventually affect the timing and cost of containers moving through U.S. ports. For truckers, that may show up as uneven surges in drayage demand, last-minute appointments and longer waits when vessels arrive outside their planned windows.

Panama Canal conditions improve

Improving rainfall and water levels in the Panama Canal are providing a partial offset for cargo moving from Asia to the U.S. East Coast. The Panama Canal Authority plans to restore daily Neopanamax transits to 10 and raise the maximum authorized draft to 49 feet in mid-October.

The changes reverse restrictions imposed in late August, when one daily transit slot was removed and allowable draft was reduced by one foot. Improved conditions lower the immediate risk of additional diversions and delays for Asia-East Coast cargo, although future weather patterns could lead to renewed restrictions.

Asia-Europe rates move in the opposite direction

While trans-Pacific prices have strengthened, Asia-Europe rates have declined as demand softened and carriers gradually restored effective capacity through increased Red Sea transits. Rates from Asia to Northern Europe fell 9% to about $3,400 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean rates dropped 7% to roughly $3,600.

The contrast reflects an uneven repositioning of ships and equipment across the global network. Capacity shifted toward Americas trades has helped support trans-Pacific rates while contributing to weaker pricing on some Asia-Europe routes.

For transportation providers in the United States, the near-term outlook remains tied to how quickly front-loaded cargo moves through ports and inland terminals. Even if seasonal demand eases, blank sailings, equipment shortages, congestion and policy uncertainty could keep ocean flows—and the trucking work connected to them—less predictable than normal.