Spot Trucking Rates Rise While Jobs Stall: What’s Driving the Shift?
Trucking employment held nearly steady in October even as spot market rates continued to run well above year-ago levels. Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed limited job growth in the sector, while DAT Freight and Analytics reported that spot linehaul rates were as much as 35% higher during the first week of November.
Employment growth remains limited
Since January, trucking employment has increased by approximately 5,700 jobs, or 0.39%. Warehousing employment rose by about 8,800 jobs, or 0.48%, while courier and messenger employment grew by roughly 2.5% during the same period.
The relatively small employment gains indicate that carriers are not adding workers at the same pace that spot rates have improved. Higher rates can strengthen carrier revenue, but they do not necessarily translate into immediate hiring when freight volumes remain uneven and operating costs continue to pressure margins.
Spot rates remain elevated
National spot truckload rates have remained broadly flat for about two months at approximately $3.47 per mile, according to the market data cited. That level is roughly 48% higher than the same period last year.
Other rate readings also point to tighter capacity. Truckstop.com and FTR Transportation Intelligence reported that dry van spot rates increased 1.5% to $2.89 per mile during the week ending Nov. 6, while refrigerated rates also moved higher. Broker-posted dry van and refrigerated van rates increased week over week, while flatbed rates declined during the same period.
DAT data showed that spot linehaul rates were up as much as 35% year over year during the first week of November. Linehaul rates exclude fuel, while spot rates are generally negotiated as all-in prices between brokers and carriers, making direct comparisons dependent on the pricing measure being used.
Capacity, freight mix shape the outlook
The increase in rates appears to reflect tighter capacity and improved negotiating leverage for carriers rather than a broad-based surge in freight volumes. The latest data indicate that shipping activity is building in some segments, but overall demand remains inconsistent.
Flatbed rates continue to receive support from industrial activity and construction tied to data-center development. DAT expects national flatbed spot rates to ease modestly toward $2.60 per mile over the following 35 days, with a projected range of $2.53 to $2.66. Construction and industrial freight typically slow around the Thanksgiving holiday as year-end projects wind down.
Truckload authority activity also increased in the latest reading. Net changes in trucking authorities turned positive by 1,279, well above the 12-month average of approximately 335. However, the figures have been affected by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s Motus rollout, which temporarily paused some deactivations while addressing a backlog.
Why hiring has not followed rates
The market is showing a recovery with limited employment gains. Carriers may be benefiting from improved spot pricing, but cautious freight demand and uncertainty about the durability of the rate increases have likely limited expansion plans.
Industry rate forecasts call for modest additional growth in 2026, with dry van and refrigerated spot rates projected to rise by approximately 2% year over year. The outlook is being driven primarily by truckload supply conditions, including the balance between available equipment, driver supply and freight demand.
